China- The Great Leap Backwards

China's annual parliament is set to convene from the 5th of March. It is widely expected that this parliament will ratify a move announced on the 25th of February to do away with the limit of two consecutive five year terms in office for China's President. This, in essence, will pave the way for Xi Jinping to be President for as long as he wants. In fact, the term "President for life" is already being bandied about.

The abolition of the term limit could be the worst thing to happen to China. Up till now, the Chinese Communist Party had slowly and surely built up a stable polity with a predictable line of succession. Smooth leadership transitions were the norm. Continuity in administration was ensured by grooming the heir apparent well in advance of the conclusion of the incumbent's term of office. Now, however, this well oiled machinery could creak to a halt with devastating consequences for China as well as for the entire neighbourhood.

Why is this so? Firstly, assured continuity in office increases the chance of a leader becoming an autocrat, or worse, a despot. In fact, China is set to become a dictatorship. If Xi Jinping is set to have an indefinite term of office, two things may happen. One, he may become increasingly authoritarian. This is backed up by the way he has slowly and steadily assumed unchallenged power within the party. Two, it would increase cronyism within the party and suppress divergent views. Most party members would prefer to be in Xi's good books and toe his line. 

Next, this is a recipe for economic and social stagnation. Leaders with a fixed term in office, especially in a political system like China's, usually seek to make positive changes within the existing framework in order to leave a lasting legacy within their allotted term in office. However, with no fixed term, Xi may lose that sense of urgency and creativity which has so far marked his term. His Belt and Road initiative, among others, is a product of an active mind seeking to bring about rapid economic growth. There is a probability, however remote, that China's economic growth will slow down. This may give rise to social unrest in the country of 1.4 Billion.

Thirdly, Xi Jinping's focus is likely to shift from governance and administration to consolidating and maintaining his own position. This is likely to lead to politicking within the party. The worst case scenario may be Stalin-style political purges, which would strike fear into the hearts of the bravest party member. Even at the best of times, those critical of the Communist party, like Ai Weiwei and Liu Xiabao have been made to suffer for their views. More of the same may be expected, with special focus on those who have a grouse against Xi Jinping specifically.

Finally, there is a scope for political instability and violent regime changes. This may sound alarmist, but is not impossible. With an unlimited term in office for a President, the only viable way for an ambitious claimant to power may be an assasination, a coup or even an armed rebellion. The consequences of this would be devastating, considering that China is a nuclear power in a volatile neighbourhood.

At a time when the Chinese Communist Party was displaying some signs of democracy, this is indeed a great leap backwards.

For the United States and India, the coming months and years may require a scaling up of military might and security partnerships to deal with what is sure to be a more assertive China under a dictator.